Sept was a strong month for US Dollar and Sterling. The market will become more exciting and volatile in this last quarter of the year due to political and geopolitical tensions. Lots of vital US economic data pending to be released in the new week especially non-farm payroll and ISM PMIs which will be affected by the negative impact of hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
Next week will be very crucial to Aussie dollar due to the release of RBA monetary policy announcement and other leading economic data like retail sales and trade balance. With the recent economy slow down and China’s downgrade by S&P, we expect RBA will express cautious monetary policy outlook thus causing further weakening of AUD/USD. In fact, technical analysis support this as well. We see continued strength of GBP against AUD with target of 1.7400.
Meanwhile Canadian dollar rally was halted by BoC Gov Poloz who indicated another rate hike is not firmed and even showed uneasiness of the currency strength. Thus, further losses of CAD against other currency can be seen especially GBP with target of 1.6900. We also expect continued selling pressure of CAD against CHF after rejection from key resistance with target 1 and target 2 at 0.7710 and 0.7650 respectively.
This week key economic events: